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Predicting Protected Lists: Ottawa Senators 

Between Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf, the Ottawa Senators have a lot of important choices to make before the expansion draft. Currently they are at risk of losing a top-four defender, but that could change depending on how the next couple of weeks shake out. 

Up front, the Senators have four players that they will definitely be protecting. They are Kyle Turris, Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman, and Derrick Brassard. 

After a strong playoff performance, Jean-Gabriel Pageau also seems like a safe bet to be protected. 

Clarke MacArthur should get a spot as well. After being sidelined for almost two full seasons with concussions, MacArthur came back for the playoffs and impressed. He does not meet the exposure requirements regardless. 

The last spot comes down to two players, Bobby Ryan and Zack Smith. 

Ryan carries a large cap hit at $7.25 million for the next five seasons. After a very disappointing regular season, it seemed like Ryan would be left exposed to Vegas. However, after a strong playoff performance, Ryan could be back on the protection list. 

As for Smith, he has four years left on his deal at $3.25 million per. Smith is a versatile forward who can play multiple positions and can play in all situations as well. Just a year ago, he scored 25 goals. 

It is still unclear who the Senators will pick to protect with their last spot. Either way it goes, Ryan or Smith, it would not be surprising. 

As for defense, Erik Karlsson is obviously going to be protected. 

The Senators will also not want to lose any of Dion Phaneuf, Marc Methot, or Cody Ceci, but one of them will need to be exposed. If I had to guess, I would say it will be Ceci. 

The Ottawa Senators protection list could look like the following: 

 
Forwards: Mike Hoffman, Kyle Turris, Mark Stone, Derrick Brassard, Clarke MacArthur, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, and Bobby Ryan OR Zack Smith 

Defense: Erik Karlsson, Marc Methot, Dion Phaneuf

Goalie: Craig Anderson 

Prime candidates that could be going to Vegas are Cody Ceci (or whoever is exposed of Ceci, Phaneuf, and Methot) and Ryan Dzingel. 

Next team: Philadelphia Flyers

-Kevin, @TheNHLFiles

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It’s time to consider Erik Karlsson as a top-three player in the world with Crosby and McDavid 

Erik Karlsson has sat atop the NHL’s defensive food chain for multiple years now and the 2017 NHL playoffs are not the first instance of his brilliance. Rather, this year’s playoffs have acted as a magnifying glass to show off Karlsson’s raw and dynamic talent. Karlsson should be considered a top-three player in the NHL, and this year’s playoffs is the perfect opportunity for the hockey world to realize this fact. 

Gone are, or should be, the days of the old school mentality that in order to be a good defenseman, you need to block shots and be anchored down in the defensive zone. Karlsson is the quintessential model of the break in this trend. Ottawa’s run to the Eastern Conference Final has finally pitted a spotlight on Karlsson and his genius as a defender, and furthermore has augmented the fact that he should be considered amongst the league’s best with Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid. 

Erik Karlsson has notoriously been regarded as a poor defensive player by the media. He does not play the stereotypical role of a defenseman who blocks shots and lays the body on his opponents. Instead, Karlsson uses his stick and speed to strip the puck from the players he is defending in order to transition the play in the reverse direction. 

Karlsson is not the Norris Trophy winner that Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger, and Zdeno Chara were. He is a new, hybrid breed of a defenseman. He exemplifies all the NHL has become over the past half a decade — quick and smart. Defenseman who stay trapped in their own end were once regarded as heroes and the best in the league. But now, those players, such as Dan Girardi, Brooks Orpik, and Kris Russell, now carry a stigma with them. The ideology has shifted from “good defensively” to “poor analytically”. Karlsson’s game is the new best in the NHL and he himself is the best at doing it. He was once regarded as an inadequate defenseman because people never saw him playing defense. He rarely has to even skate backwards. Karlsson’s game had evolved five years before the rest of the NHL followed suit, and everyone is now just catching on. 

Karlsson has been as good as it gets for the past three years and beyond. As the classic HERO Chart from Own the Puck shows, Karlsson is at the top of his game in virtually every category: 

His ice time skyrockets to absurd numbers, so the data is not a result of a small sample size. This past regular season, Karlsson averaged 26:50 time on ice per game. This was only behind three players, those being Dustin Byfuglien, Drew Doughty, and Ryan Suter. Oh, and Karlsson outscored the nearest of those three (Byfuglien) by 19 points in three less games. 

Karlsson is averaging over two full minutes more of ice time in the playoffs. In the 13 games that the Senators have played, Karlsson has an average time on ice of 29:04. He is out there for every other shift and for half the game in some instances. It is a feat of human endurance that is rarely seen in the game today. Along with this, just to show how preposterous this whole situation is, Karlsson has two hairline fractures in his foot. Karlsson mentioned this himself after Round One, which is rare given the NHL’s unwritten injury protocol. Even if he were to usually mentioned something, it would have likely been limited to a “lower-body injury”. 

“It’s something that’s done with. I just felt like getting it out of the way instead of having it keep lingering on,” Karlsson said. “I’m not much for secrets.”

Karlsson’s admittance to the injury is a refreshing change to the usual ambiguity of the league today, even if it was just to clear the air with the media. It also makes watching what Karlsson is doing on the ice even more spectacular. He’s still the fastest and most agile guy out there on any given night despite the injury. 

WATCH: Karlsson shows insane agility and sets up Brassard for goal

The brilliance of Erik Karlsson this season also comes in an odd scenario, that being with Guy Boucher as coach. There was a lot of speculation prior to the season as to how Boucher and Karlsson would mix, but so far it has worked out to perfection. Boucher, a noted trap-playing and defensive-oriented coach, lets Karlsson play to his ability and freely. Karlsson is not bound to any constraints or to any system under Boucher. It is a symbiotic relationship that has provided considerable benefits for both coach and player. 

Boucher has a clear admiration for Karlsson and the way he plays. He publicly praises Karlsson on the regular, especially towards the end of the season when he was dealing with a multitude of injuries. 

“To see where this guy is right now, to see him this year throughout the year, he has put the building blocks one on top of the other to become the player he is now and the man that he is now. I’m really fortunate to have lived it and seen it. Everybody benefits from it,” Boucher told The National Post.

Karlsson’s run in the 2017 playoffs has truly proven to the hockey world that he should not only be considered among the best in the world, but the elite. Karlsson needs to be considered as a person who sits atop the food chain of the NHL with Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby. No three players are more dominant at what they do in the game than these three men. 

When it is all said and done, Erik Karlsson will be looked back on as a revolutionary for the game. His model of play has already paved the way for many defensemen who have entered the league after him, and it will continue to be a prime example for those moving forward. Being able to watch Karlsson in his prime is a privilege that should be marveled in and not skewed by a preconceived and old-school media bias. 

It is hard to believe it took this long, but Erik Karlsson is finally getting the praise he deserves. Let’s not let that notion change anytime soon. 

-Kevin, @TheNHLFiles 

Bruins Wild Card Push

With the Eastern Conference wild card standings being as congested as they are, the Boston Bruins are neck and neck with the surging Ottawa Senators for the eighth and final spot in the 2014-2015 Stanley Cup playoffs. The Bruins (87 points) have had a series of hot and cold streaks throughout the season that have put them in the unexpected situation that they are in.
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